Nowadays Belarusian authorities act on the principle of destroyed space in connection to Belarusian culture. An attempt to make loyalty the main tool of the system existence leads to catastrophic consequences - for the first time in the history of independent Belarus. If earlier the state tried to cultivate obedience by the method of "quiet" ban and publicly ignored the existence of "black lists", now those lists were not just legitimized but made global for all independent Belarusian music.

Almost all organizers talk about the inability to get "a license for organizing events" with the participation of Belarusian artists. And now there is no difference whether an artist has any civic position and an intention to make it public: an official uses a preventative principle and just minimizes all possible risks in order not to get into the list of "the disloyal". Obviously, it's a temporary measure: in such a way the system just takes a break in order to create a database of loyal organizers. The committee consisting of proven people makes a decision whether you will have the right to organize mass events - it guarantees the absence of unpleasant surprises for the state.

If previously the state just didn't notice the existence of independent Belarusian music and faced it only during big festivals or the national selection for "Eurovision", now the appropriate institutions attentively keep track of social networks and other expressions of public activity. The command "Ignore" was changed into the command "Destroy", that's why now even an entirely harmless cover artist can get imprisoned for performing not less "harmless" but a Ukrainian song. This total sweep is aimed at the creation of a pool of obedient artists and the demonstration of loyalty to Russia. If the first part of that statement is quite obvious, the second one needs additional explanation.

The band t.A.T.u with its original members, White Punk, a Nikolai Drozdov's thematic evening, "Rock hits. Russian rock", "New Russian grannies", Hammali&Navai - this is a list of events for the upcoming month in Minsk. Russian artists got complete freedom for their tour activities in Belarus and use this opportunity being applauded by the satisfied loyal audience. Belarusian music was officially and categorically substituted by loyal Russian. Disloyal Russians are also blocked: for example, a concert by the inconvenient Basta was canceled based on a report by "vigilant citizens". And now the cultural landscape looks as if everything takes place in Smolensk province of Russia and not in an independent state. The hostile Western culture is entirely "cancelled", Ukrainian music is moved out of the public eye by 100%, the repressions against Belarusian musicians continue.

Again Ihar Bancer from the hardcore band Mister X is behind bars. The band members of "Irdorath" are imprisoned. Mieryjem Hierasimienka was detained for another 15 days. Under such circumstances the state attempts to create the obedient feast of legitimacy and periodically demonstrates its creative potential: a great example of the quality of such events is the concert "You don't give away your beloved" in Aliaksandraŭski park.

Belarusian variety shows finally got into the agroaesthetic mentality: the official Minsk treats "Parents' home" by Drazdy band and "For the agronomist" of the immortal Saladucha as hit songs. Saladucha's act is especially impressive. Such an approach demonstrates that "loyalty is more appreciated than quality": the acceptance of state postulates guarantees broadcasting, state corporate events and an opportunity of stable income - surely it's not about creativity.

On the other hand, there are ideological opponents of state aesthetics. The solidarity festivals take place in Poland and Lithuania, well-known bands and performers from Naviband to Hanna Šarkunova release new tracks and albums.

Under the conditions of scarcity of new meanings and the aggravation of national question, musicians use familiar and understandable images which were actual both in the late Soviet period and the first decade of independent Belarus. An illustrative example is the band Relikt which released an album of covers on outstanding Belarusian rock bands of the gold era.

The difference from the "official" variety shows is evident - it's the artistic quality.

And how do those bands, which made a living by music till 2020, feel under these circumstances? Some of them started building tour routes in the West before Belarusian protests and war. Take the band Molchat doma, for example. The others — Maks Korž and LSP — had to pause the concert activity: it is impossible to continue touring in Russia and they are not able to sustain themselves financially in the West. At the same time Siarhiej Michalok surprises with his commercial sense when touring with his exhumed Lyapis Trubetskoy and random musicians.

Belarusian artists with a smaller appetite got an opportunity to sell tickets in the places where it seemed to be impossible before: Belarusian diasporas provide a stable demand for Belarusian music abroad. The audience didn't grow but its activity boosted, and this gives an opportunity to such bands as Nizkiz, Petlia Pristrastija and Naviband to successfully go on a tour twice a year.

But we have nuances even in this case: the musicians who continue living in Belarus have difficulty in getting visas, and every coming back after the tour is a serious risk. In fact, Belarusian music lives in the format of total risk and forced escapism.

Firstly, it's a global scarcity of ideas and meanings. The artists who left Belarus, have to rebuild their lives and seek the sources of income: such conditions can not contribute to creativity. The musicians who stay in Belarus apply the principle of ultra-censorship: every public performance, every word and every Instagram post are examined with high-precision optics.

At the same time a full sweep and formatting continue on different levels. The state reacts positively to the expression of absolute loyalty and offers safety and archaic communication channels with potential listeners as a reward. Meanwhile the state demonstrates extreme loyalty in connection to the neighbouring country and creates the appropriate informational environment. In the short term such formatting will lead to the total escapism of the listener who was never a target audience of state trash dance and low-quality Russian pop music. Quiet and seemingly neutral initiatives for "the chosen ones" will be created: the analogues of Soviet "kvartirniks" (concerts in flats) which will only be available to the proven people.

In the meantime the opposite process will start. Some musicians with no less enthusiasm will focus on the Russian audience and the listener who got into the informational isolation. It's a simpler and a very safe way to get a large audience and commercialize your success: in the conditions of total "cancelling" of Russian culture a new scheme of creating music for the appropriate audience and the ways of monetizing it will be formed. Taking into account the extremely simplified logistics, "the understandable" market and the activity of the audience, some artists will entirely reorient while losing a certain amount of listeners.

In the more distant perspective and on more high-quality levels of the meanings creation, art will start reacting at events in this or that way. Now artists are busy reimagining and pragmatically rebuild their living conditions. After this process finalizes, a new loud wave of Belarusian-centric music in emigration and a quiet initiative inside the country will commence.